Denver, strange stat

[uscmd]

Denver seems to be playing to the level of their opponent.

They've won last 9 su. They are the only nfl team perfect at home. 6-0. (N.E. 6-0 on rd)

But they are 1-5 ats vs losing teams. 0-4 L 4.

This includes beating LV 10-7, at home as 8.5 pt favorites, wk 10

Sadly, this is probably a file it away for a later day fact. Den healthy, LV much less so (Crosby not practicing). Cluster inj's O-line. Then theres the Geno factor. LV, 2 wins....could be thinking qb draft (tied for 2nd pick). LV battling Tennessee for largest negative point differential -128

I mentioned this because its an anomaly. Den seems to be rolling, but doing just enough to win

One last point. In the entire NFL Den has 2nd best record. But check these point differentials. the top 5 records

11-1 NE.... +110
10-2 Den....+66
9-3 Chi.......+6
9-3 Rams.....+128
9-3 Sea........+133

The phrase smoke and mirrors comes to mind. BOL 2 all.

 

[uscmd]

Chi, only +6, pts wise., this despite,,,,being by far the league best +/- (turnover/takeaway) +17.

Next closest team is +9. Which makes point differential even more bizarre. (rams, tb, hou all +9)

 

[itchy_pickle]

Chi, only +6, pts wise., this despite,,,,being by far the league best +/- (turnover/takeaway) +17.

Next closest team is +9. Which makes point differential even more bizarre. (rams, tb, hou all +9)

Last season KC was +59 and won the AFC.

 

[skoda]

Yes Denver only NFL team unbeaten at home! I forgot about this trend. Not many if any ever go undefeated. Same but opposite on road few if any go winless on road…. Lots of work and time to find all angles for all games. Doubt looking at Denver next 3 at home games they stay perfect at home

 

[uscmd]

Agree trends/stats can be a waste of time. But............

How is Chi 9-3. +17 turnovers, yet 313 pts for, 307 pts allowed.

Equally eye catching 10-2 Den, losing (ats) 4 straight and 5 of 6 against LOSING teams.

Goal is to turn data into information, information into insight.

Fri, is the day I collate the numbers yellow sheets, and ideally turn it into final picks

bol guys.

 

[Serbone]

Broncos: Milton Berle games...

 

[Michelangelo]

Nice work, doc. Appreciate you sharing it with us.

 

[itchyback]

Stats can be misleading
Aa well as trends

 

[uscmd]

Itchy, agree. But the trick is gathering enough you can sort through and see what matters.
Whats the alternative, ignore it? Imho, experience facilitates turning data--> insight

Trust me, I have, each week, hundreds of times, the data that i post, I try to be selective, and post, what seems to be anomalous. Den and Chi are good, but flawed. Den near 80% picks, Chi near 70%.

bol 2 all.

 

[itchyback]

Denver 6 points teaser down : )

 

[Mofome2]

How are the Eagles 8 - 4 with an offense that is a shell of itself from last year

 

[uscmd]

I'm sensing a rhetorical question. But losing Jalen Brown, the glue for the defense will test them further..
Add limited LB's Phillips and Baun, if they play. But at the heart they are a champion, young teams have to learn how to win. The eagles, despite, the mountain of repeating, know how to win. They have only 1 loss, that wasn't 1 score.

Two weeks before game day, I write out all the games, with look ahead lines. Then on a 2nd pad I list them again this time my pre numbers sense of who wins. I had den and Phil near the top. Then come the numbers, injuries, anomalies, look ahead, who each team plays next, need, division and wc. I rerank them 5-6 more times. Trying to get to the 3-5 I'll actually lay money on. Some plays are for one side, others are plays against the opponent. But this is becoming a myth. Parity and razor sharp lines have all but limited 'play against.'

This thread started with Den, a team I liked, having a bunch of red flags. Chiefly playing down to ther opponents, small margins, going on the rd giving over a td. Den has again caught my eye. Partly, because Geno could be good for 7, for Den. Add 3 defensive starters are questionable for LV, including crosby. Den might win close, but LV loses big.

Phil is tougher. Thur night I got burned when ARSB played, CeeDee got hurt, and Pickens was a non-factor. if Herbert plays this becomes tougher. No Herbert, I take Phil. Remember, both teams are 8-4.

BOL 2 all.

 

[itchy_pickle]

I'm sensing a rhetorical question. But losing Jalen Brown, the glue for the defense will test them further..
Add limited LB's Phillips and Baun, if they play. But at the heart they are a champion, young teams have to learn how to win. The eagles, despite, the mountain of repeating, know how to win. They have only 1 loss, that wasn't 1 score.

Two weeks before game day, I write out all the games, with look ahead lines. Then on a 2nd pad I list them again this time my pre numbers sense of who wins. I had den and Phil near the top. Then come the numbers, injuries, anomalies, look ahead, who each team plays next, need, division and wc. I rerank them 5-6 more times. Trying to get to the 3-5 I'll actually lay money on. Some plays are for one side, others are plays against the opponent. But this is becoming a myth. Parity and razor sharp lines have all but limited 'play against.'

This thread started with Den, a team I liked, having a bunch of red flags. Chiefly playing down to ther opponents, small margins, going on the rd giving over a td. Den has again caught my eye. Partly, because Geno could be good for 7, for Den. Add 3 defensive starters are questionable for LV, including crosby. Den might win close, but LV loses big.

Phil is tougher. Thur night I got burned when ARSB played, CeeDee got hurt, and Pickens was a non-factor. if Herbert plays this becomes tougher. No Herbert, I take Phil. Remember, both teams are 8-4.

BOL 2 all.

It would all depend on the number. Bet numbers, not teams. Arizona +9½, no thank you. Arizona +10, yes please.

 

[Bozzie]

The Denver defensive line as a whole is a beast, Gino Smith took six sacks against this same Broncos defense a month ago, sacked 46 times already this year alone. 50 seems like it's in the mix this weekend....

 

[itchy_pickle]

Denver is just fine. They've beat both of last years Super Bowl participants, Phi & Kc. We like to find reasons not to select a team instead of reasons why to select them. Its human nature. I have them as the 2nd best team in the league behind the Rams as of this week.

 

[uscmd]

I agree. Den beat KC and Phil, su and ats
But they also have losses ats to Was, LV, giants and jets.
Re: Geno, yes defense hurt him. Den def is a beast. Genos awful. Hes going to be a clipboard caddy.
But Den lost that game ats. Den won 10-7, in a game where they were 8.5 pt favorites. At home.

Re: gambling we've been trying to pinpoint why its tougher to reach mid 60%+. I'm searching. When I started NFL players often had 2 jobs, guys towards the bottom of the roster. The hitting was legendary. Players feared losing their jobs. Today nflpa, has made it so, Average salary 3.2 million to 5.2. But skewed by big contracts. Rookie minimum 750k to 1.0. In the 60's, the average was 12,000 to 15,000. I know, different dollars, different buying power. But tough to get set for life at 15k. Today a player could retire after 5 yrs and be set for life.

How can Den get up for KC and Phil, but lose to the dregs. Player focus? franchise focus? (institutional intensity?). Guys I'm asking. I love to bet on sports. But I'm not a fan of gambling. Is Den's inconsistency a risk? Hell, the rams just lost to Car. Let me know if that was on your bingo card. Rams losing su, not ats.

"A realistic approach to altering one's destiny and accepting the responsibility that comes with freedom. No meaning that comes from outside of ourselves is real. The truth for each of us has already been obtained. We only need to recognize it."

OK, a bit of a reach. But I feel like theres a big chunk of the "why" missing. And I'm stubborn enough that half of my efforts will be understanding why nfl betting has changed. The other half, picking the best 3-5 sides each week.

bol 2 all.

If your interested the quote was from a 70's book "If you meet the buddha on the road, kill him."

 

[Bozzie]

I dislike the 7.5..i bet it moves to 8 by the game.

GL all

 

[uscmd]

The "why".......whatever it is, will still leave us susceptible to:

A blown refs call
A tipped ball, int or not.
An in game injury.
A big defensive hit....fumble.
Just more so, with parity and razor sharp lines

But these are not new. Guys, please if you have any thoughts about whats changed please post.
Bozzie, your the best. Skip the verbage, deal the cards! If you are active at many books you could find 8. I'm doubting it. Unless the vig is higher.

bol 2 all

 

[itchy_pickle]

The "why".......whatever it is, will still leave us susceptible to:

A blown refs call
A tipped ball, int or not.
An in game injury.
A big defensive hit....fumble.
Just more so, with parity and razor sharp lines

But these are not new. Guys, please if you have any thoughts about whats changed please post.
Bozzie, your the best. Skip the verbage, deal the cards! If you are active at many books you could find 8. I'm doubting it. Unless the vig is higher.

bol 2 all

My focus is 100% a Market and a statistical model. I use both and compare to the line. Market Implied Den -6.5 Statistical Implied Den -10. The line is right in the middle at Den -7.5 no play for me. It would have to be below 6.5 or above 10. The book line and models adjusts to players out so I don't concern myself with that. Blown calls or non calls you can't determine.

 

[uscmd]

Itchy, I'm with you. no play.

My point in all of this drivel, is that parity and razor sharp lines, have reduced the game largely to the random plays, being decisive. For 6 weeks I've been wrestling with whats changed. I believe this is a big chunk. I'm open to other thoughts.

bol 2 all